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Prediction of Sustainability of Various Homegardens in Lampung Province, Indonesia using AHP and Logit Models
Dissertation Abstract:
Lampung province has a critical forest encroachment problem that has to be solved immediately. The sustainability of the pekarangan (homegarden) to provide farmers their daily needs is one way to solve that problem. In this study, data on 403 landscape units from six districts of Lampung province were obtained by field study together with bio-physical observation. The socioeconomic data were gathered using an interview schedule. The level of sustainability of the pekarangan and the variables that affect it were measured by Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and logit models. The independent variables used were Social Acceptability Index (SAI), Farming Index (FI), bio-physical factors, and socioeconomic factors.
Both the binomial and multinomial forms were utilized to specify logit prediction models for classification of pekarangan sustainability. The ranking of significant factors that affected pekarangan sustainability were described by AHP including the overall inconsistency index and sensitivity analysis for each ranking.
The results revealed that the majority of the respondents were Javanese (42.93%) and the respondents were generally in the productive age (38.70 years old); 50.70 percent were male and 49.30 percent were female; and have attended elementary school. In terms of decision-making, both husband and wife (38.71%) decide the species to plant, the planting lay-out, and the purpose of the pekarangan harvest. The respondents were found to have five members in the family; generally have farming as main source of income; have annual family income of IDR4.5M and net income from pekarangan of IDR756,960; mostly own a pekarangan with an average pekarangan size of 816.43m2. Most of the respondents (81.39%) had no problem in labor adequacy in each of the activities in the pekarangan. More than one-fifth (29.28%) have two activities in their pekarangan and 26.05 percent have three activities. Pekarangan crops were harvested monthly and all harvests were used by 32.26 percent of the respondents for their daily needs. Pekarangan’s SAI was found to be moderate level and FI indicated low level.
All equations in binomial logit and three equations in multinomial logit were found to be effective. Binomial models developed for each district were all effective since all models yielded at least 90 percent correct classifications of the sustainability level of the pekarangan units under each district. On the other hand, the majority number of data in equation of multinomial logit was correctly predicted as low except Tanjung Baru village, North Lampung district which is moderate. The significant variables were based on coefficient and standard error.
The most significant variables based on binomial logit that affected pekarangan sustainability were number of agroforesty activities in the pekarangan (Act), SAI, FI, and Decision Making (DM). In multinomial logit y = 1 (moderate level), the most significant variables were FI, ethnic group (Et), soil pH, Occupation (Op), Education (ES), soil organic matter content (OMC), soil texture (Tx), Act, and number of family members (Fm). In multinomial logit y = 2 (high level), FI, Act, OMC, SAI, soil aggregate (Ag), and Et were identified as most significant variables.
Among the conclusions or inferences that could be made from this study, was the fact that the sufficiency of daily needs for people who live near forests is major consideration in addressing forest encroachment problem. Thus, forest managers who wish to tap pekarangan development as a forest management approach should not only focus on the bio-physical aspect of forest but also the socioeconomic factors that influence people’s attitudes and practices related to forest.