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Assessment of Land Use and Land Cover Change in Dong Na Tard Provincial Protected Area, Savannakhet Province, LAO PDR
Thesis Abstract:
The study, conducted in Dong Na Tard Provincial Protected Area (DNT PPA) III, Kaysonephomvihane District, Savannakhet Province, primarily aimed to analyze the influence of different drivers to land use/land cover (LU/LC) change. Specifically, it aimed to (1) determine and evaluate the change in LU/LC in 2007 and in 2017, (2) analyze the relationship of the different drivers of LU/LC change, and (3) predict future LU/LC change in the protected area in the next 10 years.
The integrated approach of remote sensing and Geographic Information System (GIS) for land cover change detection was employed, and modules for Land Use Change Simulations (MOLUSCE) model technique was used to simulate the LU/LC change in the future. The different drivers influencing LU/LC change were analyzed using correlation and regression. Historical land use/cover data of the Dong Na Tard PPA were extracted from the 2007 and 2017 Landsat images. The image for 2017 was used in addition to the household interviews and key informant interviews in order to capture the history of different land uses and land cover changes over the last 10 years. Results showed that in the percentage of LU/LC change from 2007 to 2017, the agriculture area had the highest positive value, indicating high increase (175.88%) from its initial 3,955.23 ha, followed by plantation area with an increase of 155.77 percent, and urban and built-up area with an increase of 100.51 percent. On the contrary, mixed deciduous forest, dry dipterocarp forest, and bare land had negative values, indicating a reduction in size by 20.51 percent, three percent, and 75.68 percent, respectively. This was attributed to the conversion of lands to other categories. Family size, crop production density, and crop farm income factors were found to be moderately correlated with land use in 2007 (p < .05). Income factors derived from off-farm, crop farm, and livestock were found to be moderately correlated with land use in 2017. After a decade, family size, crop production diversity, and farm distance no longer showed any correlation with land use; family income was found to be the main factor affecting livelihood conditions.
Regression analysis of LU change showed crop farm income and crop production diversity had significant influence on LU change using unstandardized coefficient value of about 0.0000002 and -0.825, respectively. These factors were found to have significant correlation to LU change (p < .05). Sample respondent households usually engaged in agricultural production and practiced crop rotation and integrated crop- livestock production during a one-year production cycle.
The LU/LCC trends simulation indicated that built-up land would increase by 62.28 percent by 2027. This shows that the spatial pattern of agricultural land, and urban and built-up areas will continue to expand and is projected to cover about 25 percent of the total study area by 2027. Meanwhile, mixed deciduous forest, dry dipterocarp, plantation, water body, and bare land are projected to decrease in the next decade.