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Impact of climate variability on traditional upland rice production and farmers’ adaptation mechanisms in Luang Prabang Province, Lao PDR
Thesis Abstract:
This study was conducted to assess the impacts of climate variability on traditional upland rice production and farmers’ adaptation mechanisms in the three villages of Luang Prabang Province. Specifically, it aimed to: (1) determine the social and biophysical characteristics, (2) assess the upland-rice yield potential with the changes in temperature scenarios, (3) analyze the farmers’ adaptation mechanisms to low rice yield due to climate variability, and (4) assess and recommend agricultural upland-use policy to meet food sufficiency and food security.
Primary data were collected through direct interviews with the respondents and focus group discussions. The historical weather data for 11 years and additional 50 years of synthetic weather data were generated through the LARS-WG program. Both historical and synthetic weather data were used in the FORTRAN Simulation Environment (FSE) to simulate increasing temperature scenarios from +0°C, +0.5°C,+1°C, +1.5°C, and +2°C using the ORYZA2000 crop simulation model. Simulation analysis showed that as the temperature increases, the yield potential was reduced.
Low rice productivity, self insufficiency, upland-use policy, natural phenomenon, and poverty were the five attributes of adaptation which led the respondents to develop their own adaptation mechanisms to low rice yield. These adaptation mechanisms were classified into two types: cultural such as indigenous knowledge handed down from generation to generation and change in cropping system such as shift from upland rice production to cash and annual crop productions.
Many upland rice cultivators were aware of the changes in the meteorological factors and the short- and long-term strategies and development plans of the government. Most of the farmers were in agreement with the direction the government is taking. The results of the focus group discussions with the key informants support the contention that shifting from upland rice cultivation to cash and annual crops improve their living conditions.