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- Design of a risk management model on pepper agroindustrial investment
Design of a risk management model on pepper agroindustrial investment
Dissertation Abstract:
The spectrum of investment instruments will provide different degrees of uncertainty. This is influenced by the level of risk faced. Analysis of investment performance then needs an analysis that integrates the aspects of return and risk within a framework of analysis. The competitiveness of the pepper industry, which can be expressed in the achievement of quality, market share, profitability, and sustainability is still low. Pepper agroindustry is integrated with farming systems and conducted on a small scale and traditional approach. The decisions on mechanical pepper agroindustry and its investments on value chain are very limited. It has typically been driven by practical factors such as risk.
The objective of this study was to propose a comprehensive method in risk analysis, risk management design, and risk-based financial analysis as a model of decision support systems. The methods of this research were Fuzzy Logic, FMEA, and vulnerability analysis, which is expressed in radar chart, analytical hierarchy process, and cash flow analysis. On the other hand, Fuzzy Weighting Approach on expert and risk competent is one method that can improve risk assessment. This study provided an analysis tool that integrates financial and risk analysis in the framework, risk management models, and support facility analysis, integrated in Decision Support System called SMART INVEST. It consists of database management system, model-based management system, integrated analysis, and user interface. The model provides integrated risk analysis for pepper commodity system agent, description of financial analysis investor, and guidelines for government and other stakeholders in the process of providing instrument for risk management. Further analysis of the risk in the form of vulnerability analysis will provide the basis for determining the support type for the risk management. Application of the model in Bangka showed that the total value of risk was in the high class. Based on the risk group, the biggest risk faced by investment on the pepper agroindustrial was marketing, followed by agriculture, agroindustry, institutional, and financial. The analysis showed that the biggest risks were price, competition, steam rot disease, cooperation, and dependence between actors. The project generates a surplus of benefits over costs in 2002, of IDR 8 billion. It would be found in this case that the IRR was 45.28 percent. The benefit cost ratio was 1.95 and the payback period were 3.75 years. If there is no risk management, the risk is expected to affect on the pepper processing services (28.89%) the amount of processed pepper (31.03%), and yield (10.70%) and pay back period. It is therefore necessary to develop a risk management system, which is completed by support facilities.