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Supply response of maize in Vietnam
Dissertation Abstract:
This study analyzed the trend of maize production in Vietnam and estimated a supply response model to determine factors affecting changes in maize supply. Supply elasticities were estimated from time-series data covering 1986–2011 using the rational expectation price models.
Based on three criteria, the rational expectation supply response model with price expectation according to the information set at the time (t-1) was chosen as the appropriate model (model II) in estimating the supply response for maize in Vietnam. Farmers made use of the available information set in forming expected price. Estimated parameters results in model II indicated that the farmer’s response to the expected price of maize was positive, and negative to the expected price of cassava. Hence, maize and cassava are close substitute. Maize production also increased with increasing fertilizer application per hectare, area, irrigation, trend as proxy to technology, and the agricultural extension policy.
Recommendations include issuing policies to support production, enhancing judicious use of fertilizers, increasing maize area, improving irrigation system, increasing government support for farmers, and improving the extension system with enhanced market information.
